Visualizing Risk

Mark is boarding a plane and heard one passenger in front remarked in jest that the chance of the aircraft reaching its destination is 50%.

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It is just a joke to him because he is a serious risk practitioner. The statement demonstrates the probability component of risk.

Probability is the certainty or uncertainty of something happening. Since risk is widely known to be the effect of uncertainty on an objective, the objective of reaching the destination is only 50% certain. Another way of looking at it is by saying it is 50% uncertain.

What can be some of the possible consequences a passenger might be thinking? A new passenger might be anxious and entertain the thought of the plane crashing.

A less experienced passenger might entertain the thought that the plane might be diverted to another place due to some emergency or threat.

A more experienced passenger might say that no real risk is present and that the plane will reach the destination on time.

An observer's perspective depends mainly on the specific risk identified, plus his knowledge and experience on the subject.

RUFRAN C. FRAGO, PMP, P. ENG. , PMI-RMP, CCP, Author (120320)

About the Author

Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of PM Solution Pro, a Calgary consultingproduct, and training services firm focusing on project and business management solutions. He is passionate providing advice, mentorship, education and training through consultation, collaboration, and what he uniquely calls, student-led training.


  1. Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective.ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7.Canada
  2. Plan to Schedule, Schedule to Plan.ISBN 978-0-9947608-2-1.Canada
  3. How to Create a Good Quality P50 Risk-based Baseline Schedule.ISBN 978-0-9947608-1-4.Canada
  4. Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis (Traditional Method).ISBN 978-0-9947608-3-8.Canada
  5. RISK, What are you? The Risk Management Poem: Children's Book for all Professionals.ISBN 978-0-9947608-4-5 (Canada)
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